Monday, April 19, 2010

Past Performance Doesn't Guarantee Future Results




“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.” The closing lines of Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby, capture not only Nick’s despair at Daisy’s choice of Tom, but also the central human spirit of the relentless toil to reach a goal, despite multiple obstacles. In the 2 weeks since my return from Milot, I continue to have dreams about what I saw and the sense of unfinished business. At the same time, I have been asked by others what I think about the future of Haiti. And, as I’ve noted in previous blogs, personal experiences seem to reinforce a common theme.
This is a pivotal point in Haiti’s future. The old way of doing business has clearly failed, yet it has not dampened the spirit of the Haitians. The two basics for a successful society are a functioning infrastructure and a government that commits to the support of its people. The quake, and its aftermath have focused the world on Haiti. Aid will pour in, and it must be used to rebuild in a well thought out and controlled manner. Although the US and other countries can provide materials and money, they must not dictate. Other successful Caribbean neighbors, such as the Dominican Republic, the Virgin Islands, even Cuba, have a far better feel for the culture, needs, and local challenges of the region. Health care is in a shambles, not just physically, but functionally. Given the high incidence of AIDS and other infectious diseases, as well as general poor hygiene, the population is often unable to care for itself and each other. The relative success of Sacre Coeur in Milot is that it is privately supported, and not dependent on Port au Prince. As investment in Haiti increases, there will be opportunities to redesign an effective system, assuming governmental buy in and commitment to new paradigms.
Haiti was at one time the queen jewel of the Caribbean. It has great beauty, but its other decisions have kept this asset from being fully realized. The pictures are of the same beach. The top one could be in any travel magazine, the one below is looking 10 feet inland, where all the garbage, tossed into the open sewers of Cap Haitian has washed back ashore. All of our decisions have broad implications.
I went back to Canton, Ohio this past weekend to celebrate my Uncle’s 90 th birthday. Canton was a steel town about an hour south of Cleveland. When I grew up there, I couldn’t wait to leave and never look back. I felt it was conservative (red suit notwithstanding), I wasn’t overly happy, and I was sure that there was something better “out there.” My return trips have primarily been for an occasional class reunion, or a funeral. In the mean time, I’ve lived in Chicago, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Rochester, and now Providence. In each city, I’ve made friends and professional acquaintances, later on raised a family, and tried to figure out what the future would look like. I looked at my past, at missed opportunities, and at my decisions, and felt they would define my future. But what I have realized is that while we are influenced by our past, it is when we are able to let it go and gain energy from the present that we will be empowered to row toward the future. Haiti is at a similar place in its history.

In every prospectus is the warning that past performance does not guarantee future results. Yet, during my courses in Boston, we learned about behavioral interviewing, where, in general, past behaviors predict future actions. But the key in both statements is that nothing is etched in stone. For the people of Haiti to succeed, they must acknowledge the mistakes of the past, but at the same time use this opportunity to commit to a new course of action. And for each of us, especially those that have acquiesced to a future that is less than full, we can live in a past that we can’t change, or use it as the foundation on which to build toward our goals.
Thomas Wolfe wrote “You Can’t Go Home Again.” And he’s right. Because going back to dependency and perceived safety doesn’t allow you to develop your full potential as a person or as a country.

Santayana observed, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

I pray that the people of Haiti can both remember and forget.

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